A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
